Fact check · trading agents · checked 2026-10-01
Did a Claude agent make $868,862 on Polymarket as account gabagool22?
What was claimed?
“That is not a script on the screen, its polymarket account gabagool22. $868,862 profit. 28,620 entries. Joined October 2025. … 28,620 entries. All BTC. All 15 minute windows. Every single one green. Not one loss. Entry at 2 cents. Exit at 10. Over and over and over. A Claude agent running on the laptop below her steering wheel. 24 hours a day. No breaks. No sleep. No human input.”
The earliest version we found is in Chinese, from @qkl2058 on 2026-05-31: a developer recording a Claude Code tutorial accidentally shows a Polymarket wallet, gabagool22 — about $868,000 profit, 28,620 predictions, registered October 2025, “all on Bitcoin 15-minute markets, none losing”. A repost of that version on 2026-06-03 drew about 440,470 views. The same wallet and the same two numbers then travelled under other back-stories through September — a coffee-shop employee, an engineer in Bangalore, a graduation video — in posts our researcher read. Every version links the profile with a referral code.
In numbers: $868,862 profit; 28,620 entries; “all BTC”, “all 15 minute windows”, “not one loss”; a Claude agent running “24 hours a day … No human input”. No starting amount. No dates beyond “Joined October 2025”.
What did we check, and how?
The account is named, so its record is public: polymarket.com/@gabagool22, wallet 0x6031b6eed1c97e853c6e0f03ad3ce3529351f96d. We pulled its
first activity, its newest trade, every row dated June 2026, all trades since 2026-03-01, its deposits and withdrawals as Polymarket classifies
them, its open positions, and its daily cumulative profit-and-loss from Polymarket’s PnL API. Probe calls made 2026-10-01 (times in the recipe); the complete activity history (10,531,257 rows) was pulled the same day and streamed for the counts.
What does the record show?
| Question | The claim says | The public record says |
|---|---|---|
| How much, how many | $868,862; 28,620 entries; joined October 2025 | Profile: “Joined Oct 2025”, 28,620 predictions, “Total PnL +$867.7K”. PnL API: $868,862.50. First activity 2025-10-29 08:39 UTC (DEPOSIT $5.00). The numbers hold. |
| When the money was made | Running now (posts of 2026-05-31 to 2026-06-16) | Cumulative profit-and-loss $144,754.20 on 2025-12-01, $451,980.12 on 2026-01-01, $724,229.00 on 2026-02-01, $868,862.50 on 2026-02-21 — and the same figure every day since. Last trade 2026-02-20 09:06 UTC. Trades from 2026-03-01 to 2026-10-01: 0. |
| Activity when the posts ran | “24 hours a day. No breaks. No sleep.” | Rows dated June 2026: 21, all REFERRAL_REWARD — referral payouts, not trades. Open positions $0.00. |
| Starting money and what left | Not stated | Deposits recorded: 61 rows, $3,666.34 (first $5.00 and $980.71 on 2025-10-29). Withdrawals: 86 rows, $857,064.76, from 2025-10-31 to 2026-04-06. Direct transfers in are not classified as deposits, so the starting sum may be larger than the deposit rows show. |
| “Not one loss” | Every entry green; “All BTC. All 15 minute windows.” | Polymarket’s daily series: 336 of 337 day-to-day changes up or flat, 1 down day (2026-02-19, −$99.80). A per-market win/loss count from payout rows did not reconcile to the total, so we print none. The profile’s biggest single win is $360.23: the total came from very many small results — 10,467,634 fills across 28,620 markets, $52,000,693.82 traded, 1 sell. Both outcomes were bought in 99.9% of markets. Fills by market length: 71% 15-minute, 4% 5-minute, the rest hourly or longer. |
What does this prove, and what does it not?
- It proves that the account exists and earned about $868,862 between late October 2025 and 2026-02-21, then stopped and withdrew. The profit is a fact of the ledger — and it was made by buying both outcomes of 28,620 markets more than ten million times, not by picking winners.
- It proves that the posts of May 31 to June 16 — and the later retellings — described as live an account that had not traded since February. Whatever was on the screen in the video, it was not this account running.
- It does not prove what placed the trades. “A Claude agent” and “no human input” have no public record; neither does any of the people in the back-stories. One wallet carrying six different owners in four months is a pattern of the posts, not of the ledger.
- What would change the status: a dated record of trades by this wallet after 2026-02-20, or a public record tying a person or a program to it. We would re-run the recipe and amend this page visibly.
How did the claim change as it spread?
- The numbers never moved: $868,862 and 28,620 in every version, in Chinese and in English. The profile shows them, so copying the profile keeps them constant.
- The owner changed with each telling: a developer in a tutorial, a woman in a car, a coffee-shop employee, an engineer in Bangalore, a graduation video, a man in a kimono. The software changed too: “Claude Code”, “a Claude agent”, “an AI farm”, or no AI at all.
- Every version carried a referral code on the profile link (?via=zer and ?via=YINGGE888 on the profile links; future.news/…?ref=YINGGE888; Telegram copy-trading bot links in several reposts).
Recompute it yourself
- Open polymarket.com/@gabagool22; the 0x address repeated in the page source is the proxy wallet (0x6031b6eed1c97e853c6e0f03ad3ce3529351f96d).
- GET https://data-api.polymarket.com/activity?user=<address>&type=TRADE&limit=1&sortDirection=DESC — the newest trade (2026-02-20 09:06 UTC).
- GET …/activity?user=<address>&type=TRADE&limit=500&start=1772323200&sortDirection=ASC — trades since 2026-03-01 00:00 UTC (returns an empty list).
- GET …/activity?user=<address>&limit=500&start=1780272000&end=1782864000&excludeDepositsWithdrawals=false&sortDirection=ASC — every row in June 2026 (21 rows, all REFERRAL_REWARD).
- GET …/activity?user=<address>&type=DEPOSIT,WITHDRAWAL&excludeDepositsWithdrawals=false&limit=500&sortDirection=ASC — deposits and withdrawals.
- GET https://user-pnl-api.polymarket.com/user-pnl?user_address=<address>&interval=all&fidelity=1d — cumulative profit-and-loss per day; it reads 868,862.50 on every day from 2026-02-21 onward.
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